Some analysts do not rule out a drop in Bitcoin toward the $38,000 area if historical patterns of deep mid-cycle corrections repeat, as seen in previous market cycles.

In past cycles, BTC often experienced 50–70% drawdowns even within broader bull markets. From this perspective, a move toward $38K would still fit within historical norms.

However, a growing number of industry experts strongly disagree with this scenario.

Why this cycle may be different:

• 🏦 Spot Bitcoin ETFs have fundamentally changed demand dynamics
• 🏢 Corporate balance sheets now hold significant BTC positions
• 🌍 Broader adoption and improved market infrastructure
• 🧱 Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a mature macro asset, not a niche trade

Many argue that these factors weaken the relevance of the classic 4-year cycle, suggesting BTC may no longer follow the same boom-and-bust structure observed in the past.

The key debate now:

• 📉 Bear case: History repeats → deep correction toward $38K
• 📈 Bull case: Structural shift → shallower drawdowns and faster recoveries

For traders and investors, this creates a high-stakes environment where risk management matters more than ever. Whether BTC revisits $38,000 or confirms a new cycle model, the next phase is likely to define Bitcoin’s role as a global asset for years to come.