The Canadian dollar (CAD) is attempting to break out of a 15-year downtrend, coinciding with a strong bullish phase in global commodity markets.

As a commodity-linked currency, CAD is heavily influenced by:

• crude oil prices
• base metals and industrial demand
• global growth expectations

A structural breakout from a multi-decade downtrend would mark a significant macro shift, potentially signaling:

• sustained strength in commodities
• capital rotation into resource-heavy economies
• relative weakness in the US dollar

However, long-term trend breaks require confirmation. Traders will be watching:

• weekly and monthly closes above key resistance levels
• oil price continuation
• Bank of Canada vs Fed policy divergence

If confirmed, this could represent one of the most meaningful FX developments of the current macro cycle.