On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin has not yet entered a phase of “full capitulation.”

According to their analysis, several key indicators remain in a bearish phase, but have not reached the “extreme bearish” levels typically seen at major cycle bottoms.

📉 Market metrics are weak, but not at historical panic extremes

📊 Indicators that marked prior ultimate bottoms — such as deep realized losses and structural miner stress — are not yet fully aligned

💰 The Bitcoin Realized Price, historically a core support level during bear markets, currently points to a potential “global bottom” zone between $50,000 and $55,000

Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all coins in circulation.

Historically:

• BTC trading below realized price often marked final capitulation phases
• Sustained reclaims of this level signaled macro trend reversals

If CryptoQuant’s framework holds:

📉 Further downside toward the $50K–$55K range cannot be ruled out ⚖️ Current conditions resemble mid-bear structure rather than terminal washout 📈 A true bottom may require deeper pain or stronger long-term holder capitulation

The key question now: Is the market undergoing a prolonged distribution phase — or simply building energy before a structural recovery?