The 2025 US Nonfarm Payrolls figure has been revised downward by –1,029,000 jobs, marking the largest annual downward revision in at least two decades.

Notably:

• Downward revisions have now persisted for two consecutive years
• The magnitude of the adjustment exceeds revisions seen even after the 2008 financial crisis

This development raises important macro questions. Large negative revisions typically indicate that:

• the labor market was weaker than initially reported
• economic momentum may have been overstated
• forward-looking growth expectations need recalibration

For markets, the implications are significant:

• Increased probability of policy easing
• Repricing of rate expectations
• Shifts in USD, bond yields, equities, and crypto sentiment

When headline strength gets revised away at this scale, traders must reassess the broader economic narrative.

The labor market story may not be as resilient as previously believed.