Here's a number that keeps me grounded: of the tech companies that went public in the 2021 frenzy, nearly two-thirds are trading below their initial IPO price today. Think about that. All the champagne pops, the ringing bells, the breathless financial news coverage—it mostly led to losses for public market investors who bought into the hype. That's why I never, ever chase the first-day pop. It’s a siren song for retail investors, while the real work is done weeks before, buried in a document most people never read: the S-1 filing.

Leaving Goldman taught me one thing: I wanted to trade my own book based on my own deep-dive analysis, not just write reports. For me, that analysis begins and ends with fundamentals. The current stock market outlook today is far less forgiving than it was a few years ago. Capital has a cost again. That means the game has changed for newly public companies, and our scrutiny needs to be sharper than ever.

The investor roadshow is marketing. The S-1 filing with the SEC is the legal truth. I read them for fun, seriously. The footnotes are where management hides the skeletons. When I open an S-1, I'm not looking for a story; I'm hunting for facts to build my own thesis. My checklist is methodical and has saved me from more than a few blow-ups.

• The Business & The Moat: What do they actually sell and why can't a competitor do it cheaper tomorrow? I want to see durable competitive advantages, not just a catchy mission statement.
• The Financials (Brutal Honesty): I chart revenue growth, gross margins, and operating cash flow. Is growth accelerating or decelerating? Are they burning cash to buy revenue? A path to profitability isn't a vague promise; it should be visible in the unit economics.
• Management & Ownership: Who is on the board? Have they had successful exits before? Crucially, I check the 'Ownership' tables to see how much stock insiders are selling in the IPO. A little is normal. A lot is a massive red flag.
• Use of Proceeds: This is a simple but vital question. Is the money raised going to fund R&D and expansion, or is it being used to pay off early investors and debt? One signals growth, the other signals a cash-out.

Let's apply this. Remember the Snowflake (SNOW) IPO in 2020? The valuation was astronomical, and I was skeptical. But the S-1 was a thing of beauty for a fundamentals-driven analyst. You had year-over-year revenue growth of 174%. But the key metric for me was the net revenue retention rate of 158%. That meant existing customers were spending 58% more a year later. That's a powerful, sticky business model. The numbers justified the narrative, making it one of the few `NASDAQ tech stocks to watch` right out of the gate.

Now contrast that with the failed WeWork IPO. The S-1 was a circus. They invented metrics like "Community-Adjusted EBITDA" to hide billions in losses. It was a real estate company masquerading as a tech firm, and the numbers proved it. While momentum traders like my friend Jake Morrison might be drawn to hype, the S-1 showed a fundamentally broken business. It was a clear avoid, and reading the filing saved anyone who did their homework a world of pain.

The IPO "pop" is engineered. Underwriters price the offering to ensure a successful debut, often allocating shares to their largest clients who flip them for a quick profit. By the time a retail investor can buy on the open market, they are often providing the exit liquidity for those institutions. Don't play that game. It's a gamble, not an investment.

This one is critical. Typically 90 to 180 days after the IPO, the lock-up period expires. This is the first time that pre-IPO shareholders—employees, founders, venture capitalists—are allowed to sell their shares. A flood of new supply can, and often does, hit the market, putting significant downward pressure on the stock price. I have this date circled in red for every new company I track. In a macro environment where, as Alex Volkov often points out, liquidity is tightening, this supply shock can be especially brutal for companies that aren't yet profitable.

My personal rule is simple: I never buy a stock within its first 90 days of trading. I prefer to wait for the first full quarterly earnings report as a public company. This allows the post-IPO hype to die down, gives me a chance to hear management field tough questions on an earnings call, and lets the price action establish some real support and resistance levels. Patience is the ultimate edge here. The broader `S&P 500 price forecast` might be choppy, but a solid, profitable company will prove itself over time. I'm willing to miss the first 20% move to avoid a potential 80% drop.

The IPO market is showing signs of life again. That means a new wave of companies will be asking for our capital. So, my question to you is this: which upcoming IPO do you believe has the S-1 fundamentals to thrive, and which one is just the next great story with terrible financials?