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Every central bank meeting, my feed is flooded with the same thing: breathless speculation about a 25 or 50 basis point move. Traders line up on one side or the other, place their bets, and then get chopped to pieces in the volatility. They think the game is about guessing the rate decision. They're wrong. The rate decision is almost always the lea...

Let's be honest. The consensus trade right now is to be short the Euro. Every analyst on TV is singing from the same hymn sheet: the Fed is hawkish, the ECB is dovish, so sell EUR/USD. It's simple, it's clean, and it's probably wrong. When a trade becomes this crowded, I get interested in the other side. My time at the ECB taught me one thing: cent...